jmelesky
/
pdorg_site


			
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							<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-strict.dtd">
<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<head>
<!-- configuration parameters -->
<meta name="defaultView" content="slideshow" />
<meta name="controlVis" content="hidden" />
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" />
<meta name="generator" content="pandoc" />
<style type="text/css" media="projection" id="slideProj">
/* Do not edit or override these styles! The system will likely break if you do. */

div#header, div#footer, div#controls, .slide {position: absolute;}
html>body div#header, html>body div#footer, 
  html>body div#controls, html>body .slide {position: fixed;}
.handout {display: none;}
.layout {display: block;}
.slide, .hideme, .incremental {visibility: hidden;}
#slide0 {visibility: visible;}

/* The following styles size, place, and layer the slide components.
   Edit these if you want to change the overall slide layout.
   The commented lines can be uncommented (and modified, if necessary) 
    to help you with the rearrangement process. */

/* target = 1024x768 */

div#header, div#footer, .slide {width: 100%; top: 0; left: 0;}
div#header {top: 0; height: 3em; z-index: 1;}
div#footer {top: auto; bottom: 0; height: 2.5em; z-index: 5;}
.slide {top: 0; width: 92%; padding: 3.5em 4% 4%; z-index: 2;  list-style: none;}
div#controls {left: 50%; bottom: 0; width: 50%; z-index: 100;}
div#controls form {position: absolute; bottom: 0; right: 0; width: 100%;
  margin: 0;}
#currentSlide {position: absolute; width: 10%; left: 45%; bottom: 1em; z-index: 10;}
html>body #currentSlide {position: fixed;}

/*
div#header {background: #FCC;}
div#footer {background: #CCF;}
div#controls {background: #BBD;}
div#currentSlide {background: #FFC;}
*/

/* Following are the presentation styles -- edit away! */

body {background: #FFF url(bodybg.gif) -16px 0 no-repeat; color: #000; font-size: 2em;}
:link, :visited {text-decoration: none; color: #00C;}
#controls :active {color: #88A !important;}
#controls :focus {outline: 1px dotted #227;}
h1, h2, h3, h4 {font-size: 100%; margin: 0; padding: 0; font-weight: inherit;}
ul, pre {margin: 0; line-height: 1em;}
html, body {margin: 0; padding: 0;}

blockquote, q {font-style: italic;}
blockquote {padding: 0 2em 0.5em; margin: 0 1.5em 0.5em; text-align: center; font-size: 1em;}
blockquote p {margin: 0;}
blockquote i {font-style: normal;}
blockquote b {display: block; margin-top: 0.5em; font-weight: normal; font-size: smaller; font-style: normal;}
blockquote b i {font-style: italic;}

kbd {font-weight: bold; font-size: 1em;}
sup {font-size: smaller; line-height: 1px;}

.slide code {padding: 2px 0.25em; font-weight: bold; color: #533;}
.slide code.bad, code del {color: red;}
.slide code.old {color: silver;}
.slide pre {padding: 0; margin: 0.25em 0 0.5em 0.5em; color: #533; font-size: 90%;}
.slide pre code {display: block;}
.slide ul {margin-left: 5%; margin-right: 7%; list-style: disc;}
.slide li {margin-top: 0.75em; margin-right: 0;}
.slide ul ul {line-height: 1;}
.slide ul ul li {margin: .2em; font-size: 85%; list-style: square;}
.slide img.leader {display: block; margin: 0 auto;}

div#header, div#footer {background: #005; color: #AAB;
  font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif;}
div#header {background: #005 url(bodybg.gif) -16px 0 no-repeat;
  line-height: 1px;}
div#footer {font-size: 0.5em; font-weight: bold; padding: 1em 0;}
#footer h1, #footer h2 {display: block; padding: 0 1em;}
#footer h2 {font-style: italic;}

div.long {font-size: 0.75em;}
.slide h1 {position: absolute; top: 0.7em; left: 87px; z-index: 1;
  margin: 0; padding: 0.3em 0 0 50px; white-space: nowrap;
  font: bold 150%/1em Helvetica, sans-serif; text-transform: capitalize;
  color: #DDE; background: #005;}
.slide h3 {font-size: 130%;}
h1 abbr {font-variant: small-caps;}

div#controls {position: absolute; left: 50%; bottom: 0;
  width: 50%;
  text-align: right; font: bold 0.9em Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif;}
html>body div#controls {position: fixed; padding: 0 0 1em 0;
  top: auto;}
div#controls form {position: absolute; bottom: 0; right: 0; width: 100%;
  margin: 0; padding: 0;}
#controls #navLinks a {padding: 0; margin: 0 0.5em; 
  background: #005; border: none; color: #779; 
  cursor: pointer;}
#controls #navList {height: 1em;}
#controls #navList #jumplist {position: absolute; bottom: 0; right: 0; background: #DDD; color: #227;}

#currentSlide {text-align: center; font-size: 0.5em; color: #449;}

#slide0 {padding-top: 3.5em; font-size: 90%;}
#slide0 h1 {position: static; margin: 1em 0 0; padding: 0;
   font: bold 2em Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal;
   color: #000; background: transparent;}
#slide0 h2 {font: bold italic 1em Helvetica, sans-serif; margin: 0.25em;}
#slide0 h3 {margin-top: 1.5em; font-size: 1.5em;}
#slide0 h4 {margin-top: 0; font-size: 1em;}

ul.urls {list-style: none; display: inline; margin: 0;}
.urls li {display: inline; margin: 0;}
.note {display: none;}
.external {border-bottom: 1px dotted gray;}
html>body .external {border-bottom: none;}
.external:after {content: " \274F"; font-size: smaller; color: #77B;}

.incremental, .incremental *, .incremental *:after {color: #DDE; visibility: visible;}
img.incremental {visibility: hidden;}
.slide .current {color: #B02;}


/* diagnostics

li:after {content: " [" attr(class) "]"; color: #F88;}
 */
</style>
<style type="text/css" media="projection" id="operaFix">
/* DO NOT CHANGE THESE unless you really want to break Opera Show */
.slide {
	visibility: visible !important;
	position: static !important;
	page-break-before: always;
}
#slide0 {page-break-before: avoid;}

</style>
<style type="text/css" media="screen" id="outlineStyle">
/* don't change this unless you want the layout stuff to show up in the outline view! */

.layout div, #footer *, #controlForm * {display: none;}
#footer, #controls, #controlForm, #navLinks, #toggle {
  display: block; visibility: visible; margin: 0; padding: 0;}
#toggle {float: right; padding: 0.5em;}
html>body #toggle {position: fixed; top: 0; right: 0;}

/* making the outline look pretty-ish */

#slide0 h1, #slide0 h2, #slide0 h3, #slide0 h4 {border: none; margin: 0;}
#slide0 h1 {padding-top: 1.5em;}
.slide h1 {margin: 1.5em 0 0; padding-top: 0.25em;
  border-top: 1px solid #888; border-bottom: 1px solid #AAA;}
#toggle {border: 1px solid; border-width: 0 0 1px 1px; background: #FFF;}

</style>
<style type="text/css" media="print" id="slidePrint">
/* The following rule is necessary to have all slides appear in print! DO NOT REMOVE IT! */
.slide, ul {page-break-inside: avoid; visibility: visible !important;}
h1 {page-break-after: avoid;}

body {font-size: 12pt; background: white;}
* {color: black;}

#slide0 h1 {font-size: 200%; border: none; margin: 0.5em 0 0.25em;}
#slide0 h3 {margin: 0; padding: 0;}
#slide0 h4 {margin: 0 0 0.5em; padding: 0;}
#slide0 {margin-bottom: 3em;}

h1 {border-top: 2pt solid gray; border-bottom: 1px dotted silver;}
.extra {background: transparent !important;}
div.extra, pre.extra, .example {font-size: 10pt; color: #333;}
ul.extra a {font-weight: bold;}
p.example {display: none;}

#header {display: none;}
#footer h1 {margin: 0; border-bottom: 1px solid; color: gray; font-style: italic;}
#footer h2, #controls {display: none;}

/* The following rule keeps the layout stuff out of print.  Remove at your own risk! */
.layout, .layout * {display: none !important;}

</style>
<script type="text/javascript">
// S5 v1.1 slides.js -- released into the Public Domain
//
// Please see http://www.meyerweb.com/eric/tools/s5/credits.html for information 
// about all the wonderful and talented contributors to this code!

var undef;
var slideCSS = '';
var snum = 0;
var smax = 1;
var incpos = 0;
var number = undef;
var s5mode = true;
var defaultView = 'slideshow';
var controlVis = 'visible';

var isIE = navigator.appName == 'Microsoft Internet Explorer' && navigator.userAgent.indexOf('Opera') < 1 ? 1 : 0;
var isOp = navigator.userAgent.indexOf('Opera') > -1 ? 1 : 0;
var isGe = navigator.userAgent.indexOf('Gecko') > -1 && navigator.userAgent.indexOf('Safari') < 1 ? 1 : 0;

function hasClass(object, className) {
	if (!object.className) return false;
	return (object.className.search('(^|\\s)' + className + '(\\s|$)') != -1);
}

function hasValue(object, value) {
	if (!object) return false;
	return (object.search('(^|\\s)' + value + '(\\s|$)') != -1);
}

function removeClass(object,className) {
	if (!object) return;
	object.className = object.className.replace(new RegExp('(^|\\s)'+className+'(\\s|$)'), RegExp.$1+RegExp.$2);
}

function addClass(object,className) {
	if (!object || hasClass(object, className)) return;
	if (object.className) {
		object.className += ' '+className;
	} else {
		object.className = className;
	}
}

function GetElementsWithClassName(elementName,className) {
	var allElements = document.getElementsByTagName(elementName);
	var elemColl = new Array();
	for (var i = 0; i< allElements.length; i++) {
		if (hasClass(allElements[i], className)) {
			elemColl[elemColl.length] = allElements[i];
		}
	}
	return elemColl;
}

function isParentOrSelf(element, id) {
	if (element == null || element.nodeName=='BODY') return false;
	else if (element.id == id) return true;
	else return isParentOrSelf(element.parentNode, id);
}

function nodeValue(node) {
	var result = "";
	if (node.nodeType == 1) {
		var children = node.childNodes;
		for (var i = 0; i < children.length; ++i) {
			result += nodeValue(children[i]);
		}		
	}
	else if (node.nodeType == 3) {
		result = node.nodeValue;
	}
	return(result);
}

function slideLabel() {
	var slideColl = GetElementsWithClassName('*','slide');
	var list = document.getElementById('jumplist');
	smax = slideColl.length;
	for (var n = 0; n < smax; n++) {
		var obj = slideColl[n];

		var did = 'slide' + n.toString();
		obj.setAttribute('id',did);
		if (isOp) continue;

		var otext = '';
		var menu = obj.firstChild;
		if (!menu) continue; // to cope with empty slides
		while (menu && menu.nodeType == 3) {
			menu = menu.nextSibling;
		}
	 	if (!menu) continue; // to cope with slides with only text nodes

		var menunodes = menu.childNodes;
		for (var o = 0; o < menunodes.length; o++) {
			otext += nodeValue(menunodes[o]);
		}
		list.options[list.length] = new Option(n + ' : '  + otext, n);
	}
}

function currentSlide() {
	var cs;
	if (document.getElementById) {
		cs = document.getElementById('currentSlide');
	} else {
		cs = document.currentSlide;
	}
	cs.innerHTML = '<span id="csHere">' + snum + '<\/span> ' + 
		'<span id="csSep">\/<\/span> ' + 
		'<span id="csTotal">' + (smax-1) + '<\/span>';
	if (snum == 0) {
		cs.style.visibility = 'hidden';
	} else {
		cs.style.visibility = 'visible';
	}
}

function go(step) {
	if (document.getElementById('slideProj').disabled || step == 0) return;
	var jl = document.getElementById('jumplist');
	var cid = 'slide' + snum;
	var ce = document.getElementById(cid);
	if (incrementals[snum].length > 0) {
		for (var i = 0; i < incrementals[snum].length; i++) {
			removeClass(incrementals[snum][i], 'current');
			removeClass(incrementals[snum][i], 'incremental');
		}
	}
	if (step != 'j') {
		snum += step;
		lmax = smax - 1;
		if (snum > lmax) snum = lmax;
		if (snum < 0) snum = 0;
	} else
		snum = parseInt(jl.value);
	var nid = 'slide' + snum;
	var ne = document.getElementById(nid);
	if (!ne) {
		ne = document.getElementById('slide0');
		snum = 0;
	}
	if (step < 0) {incpos = incrementals[snum].length} else {incpos = 0;}
	if (incrementals[snum].length > 0 && incpos == 0) {
		for (var i = 0; i < incrementals[snum].length; i++) {
			if (hasClass(incrementals[snum][i], 'current'))
				incpos = i + 1;
			else
				addClass(incrementals[snum][i], 'incremental');
		}
	}
	if (incrementals[snum].length > 0 && incpos > 0)
		addClass(incrementals[snum][incpos - 1], 'current');
	ce.style.visibility = 'hidden';
	ne.style.visibility = 'visible';
	jl.selectedIndex = snum;
	currentSlide();
	number = 0;
}

function goTo(target) {
	if (target >= smax || target == snum) return;
	go(target - snum);
}

function subgo(step) {
	if (step > 0) {
		removeClass(incrementals[snum][incpos - 1],'current');
		removeClass(incrementals[snum][incpos], 'incremental');
		addClass(incrementals[snum][incpos],'current');
		incpos++;
	} else {
		incpos--;
		removeClass(incrementals[snum][incpos],'current');
		addClass(incrementals[snum][incpos], 'incremental');
		addClass(incrementals[snum][incpos - 1],'current');
	}
}

function toggle() {
	var slideColl = GetElementsWithClassName('*','slide');
	var slides = document.getElementById('slideProj');
	var outline = document.getElementById('outlineStyle');
	if (!slides.disabled) {
		slides.disabled = true;
		outline.disabled = false;
		s5mode = false;
		fontSize('1em');
		for (var n = 0; n < smax; n++) {
			var slide = slideColl[n];
			slide.style.visibility = 'visible';
		}
	} else {
		slides.disabled = false;
		outline.disabled = true;
		s5mode = true;
		fontScale();
		for (var n = 0; n < smax; n++) {
			var slide = slideColl[n];
			slide.style.visibility = 'hidden';
		}
		slideColl[snum].style.visibility = 'visible';
	}
}

function showHide(action) {
	var obj = GetElementsWithClassName('*','hideme')[0];
	switch (action) {
	case 's': obj.style.visibility = 'visible'; break;
	case 'h': obj.style.visibility = 'hidden'; break;
	case 'k':
		if (obj.style.visibility != 'visible') {
			obj.style.visibility = 'visible';
		} else {
			obj.style.visibility = 'hidden';
		}
	break;
	}
}

// 'keys' code adapted from MozPoint (http://mozpoint.mozdev.org/)
function keys(key) {
	if (!key) {
		key = event;
		key.which = key.keyCode;
	}
	if (key.which == 84) {
		toggle();
		return;
	}
	if (s5mode) {
		switch (key.which) {
			case 10: // return
			case 13: // enter
				if (window.event && isParentOrSelf(window.event.srcElement, 'controls')) return;
				if (key.target && isParentOrSelf(key.target, 'controls')) return;
				if(number != undef) {
					goTo(number);
					break;
				}
			case 32: // spacebar
			case 34: // page down
			case 39: // rightkey
			case 40: // downkey
				if(number != undef) {
					go(number);
				} else if (!incrementals[snum] || incpos >= incrementals[snum].length) {
					go(1);
				} else {
					subgo(1);
				}
				break;
			case 33: // page up
			case 37: // leftkey
			case 38: // upkey
				if(number != undef) {
					go(-1 * number);
				} else if (!incrementals[snum] || incpos <= 0) {
					go(-1);
				} else {
					subgo(-1);
				}
				break;
			case 36: // home
				goTo(0);
				break;
			case 35: // end
				goTo(smax-1);
				break;
			case 67: // c
				showHide('k');
				break;
		}
		if (key.which < 48 || key.which > 57) {
			number = undef;
		} else {
			if (window.event && isParentOrSelf(window.event.srcElement, 'controls')) return;
			if (key.target && isParentOrSelf(key.target, 'controls')) return;
			number = (((number != undef) ? number : 0) * 10) + (key.which - 48);
		}
	}
	return false;
}

function clicker(e) {
	number = undef;
	var target;
	if (window.event) {
		target = window.event.srcElement;
		e = window.event;
	} else target = e.target;
	if (target.getAttribute('href') != null || hasValue(target.rel, 'external') || isParentOrSelf(target, 'controls') || isParentOrSelf(target,'embed') || isParentOrSelf(target,'object')) return true;
	if (!e.which || e.which == 1) {
		if (!incrementals[snum] || incpos >= incrementals[snum].length) {
			go(1);
		} else {
			subgo(1);
		}
	}
}

function findSlide(hash) {
	var target = null;
	var slides = GetElementsWithClassName('*','slide');
	for (var i = 0; i < slides.length; i++) {
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<meta name="author" content="John Melesky" />
<meta name="date" content="2007-05-10" />
<title>Bayes' Theorem</title>
</head>
<body>
<div class="layout">
<div id="controls"></div>
<div id="currentSlide"></div>
<div id="header"></div>
<div id="footer">

<h1>2007-05-10</h1>
<h2>Bayes' Theorem</h2>
</div>
</div>

<div class="presentation">


<div class="slide">

<h1>Bayes' Theorem</h1>
<h3>John Melesky</h3>
<h4>2007-05-10</h4>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>What is Bayes' Theorem?</h1>
<p>
  It's a method for determining conditional probabilities.
</p>
<p>
  Duh.
</p>
<p>
  See? <a target="new" href="Bayes%27_theorem.html">Wikipedia says so</a>.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>Um, dude, whut?</h1>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>Um, dude, whut?</h1>
<p>
  Seriously, i don't know, either.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>An example</h1>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>An example</h1>
<p>
  1000 Python programmers walk into a conference.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>An example</h1>
<p>
  1000 Python programmers walk into a conference.
</p>
<p>
  10 of them (1%) harbour a dark secret.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>A test!</h1>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>A test!</h1>
<p>
  &quot;Do you prefer list comprehensions to 'map'?&quot;
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>A test!</h1>
<p>
  &quot;Do you prefer list comprehensions to 'map'?&quot;
</p>
<p>
  How accurate is it?
</p>
<ul class="incremental">
  <li>If you harbour the dark secret, it will return positive 90% of
      the time</li>
  <li>If you don't harbour that secret, it will return positive only
      10% of the time</li>
</ul>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>A question</h1>
<p>
  Joe takes the test, and it returns positive.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>A question</h1>
<p>
  Joe takes the test, and it returns positive.
</p>
<p>
  How likely is he to harbour this dark secret?
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The answer</h1>
<p>
  90% !
</p>
<p>
  Duh.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The answer</h1>
<p>
  Probably not what you think.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The answer: Bayes' Theorem</h1>
<p>
  Bayes' Theorem tells us how to compute this.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The answer: Bayes' Theorem</h1>
<p>
  Bayes' Theorem tells us how to compute this.
</p>
<p>
  But we don't know Bayes' Theorem yet, so let's puzzle through it.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The question</h1>
<p>
  Joe takes the test, and it returns positive.
</p>
<p>
  How likely is he to harbour this dark secret?
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The question, step-by-step</h1>
<p>
  If we test <em>everyone</em>, how many people will get positive
  results?
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The question, step-by-step</h1>
<p>
  If we test <em>everyone</em>, how many people will get positive
  results?
</p>
<p>
  And of those, how many will actually be evil?
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The question, step-by-step</h1>
<p>
  If we test <em>everyone</em>, how many people will get positive
  results?
</p>
<p>
  And of those, how many will actually be evil?
</p>
<p>
  We can use those two numbers to figure out how likely Joe is to be
  evil.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The population</h1>
<p>
  1000 Python programmers
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The population</h1>
<p>
  1000 Python programmers
</p>
<p>
  10% harbour the secret
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The population</h1>
<p>
  1000 Python programmers
</p>
<ul class="incremental">
  <li>990 Pure and stout of heart</li>
  <li>10 Dark-hearted functional bastards</li>
</ul>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The bad population</h1>
<p>
  10 Dark souls
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The bad population</h1>
<p>
  10 Dark souls
</p>
<p>
  ... with 90% positive test results ...
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The bad population</h1>
<p>
  10 Dark souls
</p>
<p>
  ... with 90% positive test results ...
</p>
<p>
  ... means that if we administer the test to everyone, we'll
  identify 9 functional bastards.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The bad population</h1>
<p>
  10 Dark souls
</p>
<p>
  ... with 90% positive test results ...
</p>
<p>
  ... means that if we administer the test to everyone, we'll
  identify 9 functional bastards.
</p>
<p>
  ... oh, and 1 will get through.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The good population</h1>
<p>
  990 Stout hearts
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The good population</h1>
<p>
  990 Stout hearts
</p>
<p>
  ... with a mere 10% positive test results ...
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The good population</h1>
<p>
  990 Stout hearts
</p>
<p>
  ... with a mere 10% positive test results ...
</p>
<p>
  ... means that if we administer the test to everyone, we'll clear
  891 pure pythonic souls.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The good population</h1>
<p>
  990 Stout hearts
</p>
<p>
  ... with a mere 10% positive test results ...
</p>
<p>
  ... means that if we administer the test to everyone, we'll clear
  891 pure pythonic souls.
</p>
<p>
  ... <em>BUT</em> 99 will be falsely misrepresented!
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The total population</h1>
<p>
  1000 Python programmers
</p>
<ul class="incremental">
  <li><p>
        10 evildoers
      </p>
      <ul class="incremental">
        <li><p>
              9 rightly identified
            </p></li>
        <li><p>
              1 slips through the cracks
            </p></li>
      </ul></li>
  <li><p>
        990 true and stout-hearted pythonists
      </p>
      <ul class="incremental">
        <li><p>
              99 falsely accused
            </p></li>
        <li><p>
              891 cleared by the test
            </p></li>
      </ul></li>
</ul>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The positive-test population</h1>
<p>
  108 people will test positive (99 + 9)
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The positive-test population</h1>
<p>
  108 people will test positive (99 + 9)
</p>
<p>
  9 of which are actual wrong-headed fools.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The positive-test population</h1>
<p>
  108 people will test positive (99 + 9)
</p>
<p>
  9 of which are actual wrong-headed fools.
</p>
<p>
  Which means that 8.33% (9 / 108) of those with a positive test
  result will be nasty, worthless functional programmers.
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The positive-test population</h1>
<p>
  108 people will test positive (99 + 9)
</p>
<p>
  9 of which are actual wrong-headed fools.
</p>
<p>
  Which means that 8.33% (9 / 108) of those with a positive test
  result will be nasty, worthless functional programmers.
</p>
<p>
  Which is a far cry from 90%
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The total population</h1>
<p>
  1000 Python programmers
</p>
<p>
  1% incidence of dark secret, 90% positive test rate for those who
  harbour dark secret, 10% positive test rate for those who are
  innocent.
</p>
<ul>
  <li><p>
        1% - 10 functional programmers
      </p>
      <ul>
        <li><p>
              .9% - 9 rightly identified
            </p></li>
        <li><p>
              .1% - 1 slips through the cracks
            </p></li>
      </ul></li>
  <li><p>
        99% - 990 true pythonists
      </p>
      <ul>
        <li><p>
              9.9% - 99 falsely accused
            </p></li>
        <li><p>
              89.1% - 891 cleared by the test
            </p></li>
      </ul></li>
</ul>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The total population</h1>
<p>
  1000 Python programmers
</p>
<p>
  1% incidence of dark secret, 95% positive test rate for those who
  harbour dark secret, 10% positive test rate for those who are
  innocent.
</p>
<ul>
  <li><p>
        1% - 10 functional programmers
      </p>
      <ul>
        <li><p>
              .95% - 9.5 rightly identified
            </p></li>
        <li><p>
              .05% - 0.5 slips through the cracks
            </p></li>
      </ul></li>
  <li><p>
        99% - 990 true pythonists
      </p>
      <ul>
        <li><p>
              9.9% - 99 falsely accused
            </p></li>
        <li><p>
              89.1% - 891 cleared by the test
            </p></li>
      </ul></li>
</ul>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>The total population</h1>
<p>
  1000 Python programmers
</p>
<p>
  1% incidence of dark secret, 95% positive test rate for those who
  harbour dark secret, 2% positive test rate for those who are
  innocent.
</p>
<ul>
  <li><p>
        1% - 10 functional programmers
      </p>
      <ul>
        <li><p>
              .95% - 9.5 rightly identified
            </p></li>
        <li><p>
              .05% - 0.5 slips through the cracks
            </p></li>
      </ul></li>
  <li><p>
        99% - 990 true pythonists
      </p>
      <ul>
        <li><p>
              1.98% - 19.8 falsely accused
            </p></li>
        <li><p>
              97.02% - 970.2 cleared by the test
            </p></li>
      </ul></li>
</ul>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>Bayes' Theorem</h1>
<p>
  probability(guilt, given a positive test result) =
</p>
<p>
  probability(positive test result, given guilt) * probability(guilt)
</p>
<p>
  over
</p>
<p>
  probability(positive test result)
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>Bayes' Theorem</h1>
<p>
  probability(guilt, given a positive test result) =
</p>
<p>
  probability(positive test result, given guilt) * 1%
</p>
<p>
  over
</p>
<p>
  probability(positive test result)
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>Bayes' Theorem</h1>
<p>
  probability(guilt, given a positive test result) =
</p>
<p>
  90% * 1%
</p>
<p>
  over
</p>
<p>
  probability(positive test result)
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>Bayes' Theorem</h1>
<p>
  probability(guilt, given a positive test result) =
</p>
<p>
  90% * 1%
</p>
<p>
  over
</p>
<p>
  hmmm....
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>probability(positive test result)</h1>
<p>
  population with positive test result
</p>
<p>
  over
</p>
<p>
  total population
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>probability(positive test result)</h1>
<p>
  population of true positives + population of false positives
</p>
<p>
  over
</p>
<p>
  total population
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>probability(positive test result)</h1>
<p>
  9 + population of false positives
</p>
<p>
  over
</p>
<p>
  total population
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>probability(positive test result)</h1>
<p>
  9 + 99
</p>
<p>
  over
</p>
<p>
  total population
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>probability(positive test result)</h1>
<p>
  9 + 99
</p>
<p>
  over
</p>
<p>
  1000
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>probability(positive test result)</h1>
<p>
  (9 + 108) / 1000 = 10.8%
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>Bayes' Theorem</h1>
<p>
  probability(guilt, given a positive test result) =
</p>
<p>
  90% * 1%
</p>
<p>
  over
</p>
<p>
  10.8%
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>Bayes' Theorem</h1>
<p>
  probability(guilt, given a positive test result) =
</p>
<p>
  90% * 1% / 10.8% =
</p>
<p>
  8.33%
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>Bayes' Theorem</h1>
<p>
  probability(guilt, given a positive test result) =
</p>
<p>
  90% * 1% / 10.8% =
</p>
<p>
  8.33%
</p>
<p>
  And it's just that simple
</p>
</div>

<div class="slide">

<h1>But....</h1>
<p>
  What's this got to do with spam?
</p>
</div>

</div>

</body>
</html>